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Tension over tariffs: Colombian and world stock markets and oil prices continued to fall

Portafolio

Colombia

Friday, April 4


Alternative Takes

The World's Current Take

International Reactions

Trump's Perspective


The tariffs announced by Donald Trump, President of the United States, released on Thursday, April 3, continued to shake the stock markets of Colombia and the world on Friday, with significant drops in the main indices and in oil. Added to this was China's response with a 34% tax on US imports—the same tax imposed by China—starting April 10. It also sanctioned US companies and limited rare earth exports.

On the Colombian Stock Exchange (BVC), the MSCI Colcap fell -2.23% and closed at 1,620.49 points. Since Wednesday, April 2, the index fell -0.3%. All shares on the national stock exchange also closed in the red, with the exception of Grupo Aval, Grupo Argos, Celsia, and the preferred shares of Grupo Sura and Cementos Argos. Ecopetrol shares, the country's largest company, closed Friday at 1,930 pesos, down -3.50%. As for the dollar, the currency strengthened in Colombia, rising 143.86 pesos and closing at an average trading price of 4,273.87 pesos. Likewise, at its intraday high it exceeded 4,300 pesos, reaching a value of 4,303 pesos."

Investors are in the 'get your money out now' phase, fearing that other countries will follow China's example and, furthermore, fearing that the US president will respond to China's tariffs with even more taxes," Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, explained to AFP.



BVC
BVC.

Wall Street, on its worst day since 2020

Wall Street's main indicators fell almost 6% this Friday in another session marked by Trump's tariffs. At the close of trading, the S&P 500 lost 5.97%; the Nasdaq, 5.82%; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 5.5%; after a highly volatile final stretch of trading due to fears of a trade war breaking out and causing a recession.

Volatility soared as much as 50% on the US market, which recorded its worst trading day since 2020, marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, by exceeding the already large losses of Thursday.

In these last two days of reaction to the tariffs, Wall Street has lost around $6.4 trillion in value, a record, according to The Wall Street Journal, and the figure is around $10 trillion since Trump's inauguration.

Over the week as a whole, the Nasdaq fell 10%; the S&P 500, 9%; and the Dow, 7.9%.

All corporate sectors closed in the red, with the biggest losses falling on energy (-8.7%), financial (-7.4%) and technology (-6.3%) companies.

By company, the most notable losses were seen in energy companies ConocoPhillips (-9.5%) and Chevron (-8.3%); technology companies Nvidia (-7.4%) and Tesla (-10.4%); and financial companies JP Morgan (-7.5%) and Citigroup (-8.1%).

Panorama in Asia

In Asia, investors continued to sell their stocks en masse. Tokyo closed down 2.75%, and car manufacturers' shares saw significant losses: Toyota fell 4%, while Nissan and Honda plummeted by more than 5%.

The downward trend was also felt in Seoul, which fell 0.86%, and in Sydney, where the stock market fell 2.44%. Chinese stock markets were closed for a public holiday.

Fall in European and Latin American stock markets

In Europe, after Thursday's sharp falls, stock markets continued to fall. The CAC 40 in Paris recorded its worst day since March 2022, losing 4.26% at the close, while Frankfurt and London fell 4.95%. In Madrid, the Ibex 35 closed with losses of 5.83%, and Milan fell 6.53%. In Latin America, the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) plummeted 4.87% at the close on Friday, equivalent to 2,636.555 units. This is one of the largest recent falls for the BMV, after it plunged more than 6% following Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in the presidential elections last June and in March 2020, amid the uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. For its part,
the São Paulo stock exchange fell 2.96%
and closed the week with a cumulative decline of 3.52%, dragged down by the collapse of raw materials.

The Ibovespa, the benchmark index of the largest stock exchange in Latin America, closed at 127,256 basis points, after falling 0.04% the day before.

And the S&P Merval index
of the shares of the leading companies listed on the
Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (Argentina)
closed this Friday with a fall of 7.38%, to 2,107,815.91 points. Meanwhile, the general S&P BYMA index plummeted 3.39%, to 90,189,423.87 units.

Oil prices are down

The barrel of Brent crude, the benchmark for Colombia and for delivery in June, plummeted 6.5% this Friday, to $65.58 on the London futures market.

North Sea crude stood at its lowest daily levels since April 2021, after falling $4.56 compared to the last negotiation on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), when it closed at $70.14.

While West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil closed down 7.41%, to $61.99 a barrel, the lowest price it has recorded since 2021. Futures contracts for this crude, for delivery in May, fell $4.96 compared to the last session. On a weekly basis, oil prices fell by 9%.

Oil was impacted by China's response to US tariffs and fears of an economic recession, but also by the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to increase crude oil production by 411,000 barrels per day starting next May.

In this way, the cartel advanced the commitment to reverse the production cuts in the next 18 months.

The members of the organization, who met virtually on Thursday, said they had made the decision to increase production in view of the positive market outlook.

OPEC members have cut production in recent years to boost prices, but these cuts have not been effective due to weak demand growth.

Imports of oil, gas and refined products were exempt from Trump's tariffs, but his policy, according to experts, could slow global economic growth, something that could ultimately affect oil prices. 

Petróleo

Oil.

Forecasts

The largest US bank, JPMorgan Chase, raised the chances of a global recession from 40% to 60% due to the economic impact of the drastic rise in tariffs.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell said that tariffs will lead to higher inflation, which threatens to be persistent, and lower economic growth, and stressed that there is too much uncertainty to talk about lower interest rates.

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