The Polish-Belarusian border is still an obstacle to Vladimir Putin's dream of becoming a great power, and instead the Russian president would push to the Elbe or the Brocken Mountains. After the military exercises called Zapad-2025, which ended on Tuesday, three scenarios are expected, according to Bild, two of which involve a direct attack.

Since September 12, the Russian and Belarusian armies have been participating in joint military exercises, the name of which means West, which also indicates the goal for the Russians. Vladimir Putin is deploying at least 30,000 soldiers, which is causing concern not only in the Baltic states and Poland, but also throughout Europe. The war against Ukraine began after the previous exercise with a similar name. According to an INSA poll, 62 percent of Germans fear a Russian attack.

In parallel, NATO has not been idle either, as the Baltic military exercise called Quadriga is underway. There is an important difference between the two events: while NATO is practicing the defense of the Baltic states and the North Sea, the Russians are simulating an attack.

After the end of the Zapad-2025 military exercise, three options are emerging:

• Attack on Ukraine: The Kremlin could use troops participating in the military exercise to invade Ukraine from Belarus.
• Continuing threat: Troops will be stationed further in Belarus, which would pose a threat to NATO and force it to respond.
• Diversion: Vladimir Putin launches an attack in a different direction, only directing attention to the Belarusian border.

Germany is rearming again

Peter Beyer, a CDU foreign policy expert, put it clearly: “We need to make a much greater effort to repel an attack on our country.” This also means that Germany needs to exit peace mode:

It is naive to believe that the torch of peace will shine forever.

The German army must become a defensive force again, but the black-red coalition will take on a debt of up to one trillion euros for armaments and the construction of an infrastructure that can withstand the weight of tanks. Young people can once again perform conscription, and women can also serve voluntarily in the Bundeswehr, the expert said.

Military research is restarting at universities, car manufacturers are joining the defense industry. The Bundeswehr is reorganizing its Internal Security Department and is looking for reservists. Bunkers are being built, civil defense is being strengthened, emergency warehouses are being created, potatoes, corn and grain are being stockpiled, and the population is being asked to put together emergency food supplies.

Poland destroys Russian drones

Early Wednesday morning, 19 Russian kamikaze drones intruded into Polish airspace, causing the closure of four airports. Donald Tusk urged a serious military response, and the anti-drone operation was completed by 8 a.m., then the search for the wreckage continued. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that this event could not have been accidental, it was a deliberate violation of international law.

The NATO Secretary General stressed that it was a “reckless and dangerous act” and not an isolated incident. The Polish Prime Minister called for the activation of NATO’s Article 4, which allows a NATO member state to call its allies for consultations.

Warsaw wants to deploy Patriot batteries near the border and requests additional air defense reinforcements.

Leading European and American politicians have spoken out on the matter. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe stands in full solidarity with Poland, and EU High Representative Kaja Kallas called the incident the most serious violation of European airspace by Russia since the start of the war. US President Donald Trump held talks with Polish President Karol Nawrocki on Wednesday and posted about the incident on his Twitter page.

The Polish government has requested a meeting of the UN Security Council over the drone incident. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski stressed in a radio interview that they want to “draw the world’s attention to this unprecedented Russian drone attack against a member state that is not only a member of the UN, but also of the European Union and NATO.”

Europe is preparing for all eventualities

Bild noted that only three of the Russian drones were shot down, each costing 400,000 euros. However, not all of the wreckage had been found when Ukraine signed new contracts in London on Wednesday. Poland is also interested in the Skyranger air defense system from the German company Rheinmetall. The device is not cheap, its price starts at 10 million euros, but the Bundeswehr also needs modern air defense, for which the purchase of three Israeli Heron TP super-drones was approved, along with new Patriot missiles.

Poland requested the activation of NATO's Article 4 after the drone attack on September 10, after which former German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung stated that the drone attack was a deliberate provocation by Vladimir Putin, with which he wanted to test NATO.

General Grynkewich said NATO resources are being pooled to protect Polish airspace. Denmark, France, Britain and Germany have joined the program. On Saturday evening, Poland sent fighter jets to intercept Russian drones over western Ukraine.

This shows that, despite all the American support, Europe must increasingly take care of its own defense. To this end, Germany is stationing the Bundeswehr's 45th Armored Division Lithuania in the Baltic states. As part of the Quadriga military exercise, a thousand vehicles were transported by cargo ship to Klaipeda, Lithuania.