◎Richard D. Fisher, Jr.
On September 3rd, the Communist Party of China and its People's Liberation Army (PLA) held a military parade in Tiananmen Square in Beijing, publicly displaying new weapons now in service that threaten Taiwan. Taiwan is addressing some of these threats by increasing and renewing its military investment, but it cannot address others on its own and must rely on the proactive efforts of a powerful ally like the United States.
The parade is part of China's attempt to displace the United States from global leadership, and this is precisely the purpose of the military parade. Also playing a role is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, which China is hosting in Tianjin from August 31st to September 1st. Since 2001, the SCO has focused on large-scale multilateral military exercises, and this year China went a step further by pledging to establish a development bank.
Expanding cognitive warfare to force Taiwan to compromise and surrender
The SCO summit and the September 3rd military parade, a series of coordinated actions, simultaneously demonstrated that Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping was able to outmaneuver US President Trump in the power play. Trump had just bombed the nuclear facilities of Iran, a Chinese ally, on June 21st and was attempting to divide Russia from the China-led"Axis of Evil."
On August 15, Trump hosted Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in Alaska for a six-hour meeting to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine. Despite Russia's near-destruction in the conflict, it had received military support from North Korea and China. Trump also arranged a B-2 stealth bomber flyover in an attempt to impress Putin.
Two weeks later, Putin stayed in Beijing for about five days and, as the most important guest of honor, attended a nearly hour and a half-long military parade that featured a display of over 80 different weapons on the ground and a flypast of over 100 military aircraft.
In a striking image, we can see a microcosm of the CCP's"New World Order": the leaders of the world's four major nuclear dictatorships marching side by side: Xi Jinping, Putin, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a Chinese nuclear proxy, and North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un. Notably, this was Kim Jong-un's first appearance at a multilateral summit-level event abroad.
These authoritarian regimes form the core of what the CCP calls the"community of shared future for mankind"—a destiny dominated by the CCP. For Taiwan, that destiny would begin with Russia and North Korea directly assisting China in launching a war to destroy Taiwanese democracy.
However, perhaps the most potent propaganda bomb in the CCP/PLA's sweeping"cognitive warfare" offensive—the use of information and malicious disinformation to manipulate the enemy—came from an interview with Professor Gao Zhikai, conducted by the official China Global Television Network (CGTN) after the September 3rd military parade. Gao Zhikai is one of the current stars of the CCP Central Propaganda Department's rotating roster of mouthpieces.
In his interview, Gao Zhikai unveiled a new and crucial CCP propaganda theme, declaring,"...I firmly believe, and I am increasingly convinced, that the Chinese military is the most powerful force in the world, unrivaled."
It can be expected that the CCP will use its grand ensemble of "perception" manipulation to exaggerate this "main theme" to the utmost, because it can: (1) convince the Chinese people that they can never escape the CCP's authoritarian rule; (2) force most other countries to increasingly adapt to Beijing and care less and less about Washington; (3) alienate America's allies and question the strength of its alliances; and (4) further weaken the Taiwanese people's confidence that Washington will lend a helping hand, thereby amplifying the voices advocating compromise with the CCP, that is, surrender.
The September 3rd military parade showcased the results of Xi Jinping's"comprehensive deepening of national defense and military reforms" launched at the end of 2015, and revealed several new threats to Taiwan, which also affect the United States' military superiority.
Building China's"Red Dome" to attack Trump's "Gold Dome"
For decades, China has refused to negotiate limits on its nuclear arsenal and has criticized the United States' continued missile defense programs, beginning with its initial opposition to former President Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI). Today, the People's Liberation Army is pursuing nuclear superiority by developing its own Red Dome national missile defense system, intended to more effectively deter Washington from defending Taiwan.
Trump has pledged to build a national missile defense system, the Golden Dome, to protect the United States and its allies. This move is intended to reduce the nuclear threat posed by China and Russia—who might even coordinate their use of nuclear weapons—and to shift the nuclear missile race toward a new, non-nuclear missile competition.
However, during the September 3rd military parade, the PLA unveiled the new"HQ-19" large missile interceptor, which has the ability to intercept incoming intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and attack low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellites. This embodies the PLA's investment in radar and satellite early warning systems over the past two decades into a kinetic strike capability that directly destroys targets through high-speed impact, some of which was developed with the assistance of Russia.
In addition, the PLA also displayed a"three-in-one" nuclear weapons system consisting of land-based, sea-based, and air-launched missiles: the"Dongfeng-5B" intercontinental ballistic missile, which uses liquid fuel and is deployed in large launch silos, appears to be a single-warhead version to replace the first-generation"Dongfeng-5" missile, but may also have a"Federal Bombing System" (FOBS) capability, which can bypass the South Pole-trajectory to attack the United States, thereby increasing pressure on the Golden Dome defense system.
The PLA also displayed a new, maneuverable DF-61 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), likely a modified version of the DF-41, perhaps armed with multiple, formidable hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) warheads; and a DF-31B intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a self-contained cold-launch tube, allowing for multiple reloading from the PLA's more than 300 newly constructed ICBM silos.
Also on display were the JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), which may be equipped with multiple warheads and resembles the JL-2 launched in 2019; and the JL-1 air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM), which could give the H-6N bomber (manufactured by Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group) a strike range of 8,000 kilometers.
The PLA also unveiled a new Ultra-Large Unmanned Underwater Vehicle (ULUUV), a potential asymmetric countermeasure to the Golden Dome system. Its design may be similar to Russia's nuclear-powered Poseidon/Skif underwater drone. This is an intercontinental-range torpedo capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, which the Golden Dome system cannot intercept.
Demonstrating new intrusion tools in an attempt to attack Taiwan and contain the US
Another warning signal from the September 3rd military parade was the PLA's significant progress in applying advanced information and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to drive unmanned and even autonomous weaponry while enhancing the effectiveness of traditional weaponry.
Perhaps most disturbingly, the PLA unveiled the world’s first two supersonic-capable, potentially autonomous, jet-class “Cooperative Combat Aircraft” (CCA) drones. These drones will be operated by PLA fifth- and fourth-generation manned fighters to deplete manned fighters from Taiwan, the United States, and Japan.
The two cooperative combat drones are about the same size as the Shu-10 fighter jet developed by Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group (CAC). They may be competitive products of CAC and Shenyang Aircraft Industry Group (SAC), both of which are currently testing prototypes of their sixth-generation fighter jets.
While the United States is also intensively developing cooperative combat drones, the PLA's CCA drones may already be in service, while the US has yet to publicly release any similar aircraft with supersonic capabilities.
The absolute prerequisite for any PLA amphibious or airborne invasion of Taiwan is to gain air superiority, including defeating U.S. air power in the area.
However, the September 3rd military parade also showed that the PLA possesses a variety of tracked, wheeled, and multi-legged unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), equipped with weapons such as small anti-tank rockets and assault rifles. These can be deployed by amphibious landing ships or helicopters to serve as the vanguard to break through Taiwan's anti-invasion defense network.
Another piece of"cognitive warfare" propaganda appeared on Chinese social media on September 3rd. It was an image of humanoid and"wolf-like" robots watching a military parade—suggesting that the next PLA military parade might feature a formation of combat-capable humanoid robots.
At the same time, the People's Liberation Army is also preparing to counter Taiwan's vigorous development of drones. It displayed three laser weapons during the military parade, two of which are specifically used to counter drones, and the other is a large microwave weapon developed by China North Industries Group Corporation (NORINCO) that can destroy the electronic equipment of small unmanned weapons.
In terms of ground combat capabilities, the PLA showcased a new generation of armored systems, including the T-100 main battle tank. This is a lighter, 40-ton vehicle that incorporates Active Protection System (APS) small missiles to intercept anti-tank missiles, a quiet diesel-electric hybrid propulsion system, and new digital sensors and control systems that may even support remote and intercontinental satellite control.
Another display related to the invasion of Taiwan was the second-generation new airborne armored vehicles, including infantry fighting vehicles, armored personnel carriers, and a new 120mm mortar carrier, which can be airdropped from the"Y-20" and "Y-20B" heavy transport aircraft produced by the Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, which also appeared in the military parade.
Other news highlighting the PLA's projection capabilities includes the first assembly of the PLA's future aircraft carrier-based aircraft wing, including the new"Kongjing-600" ship-borne airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS), the catapult-launched fourth-generation and a half fighter"Shu-15T", and the catapult-launched fifth-generation"Shu-35" fighter. Its combat capability is close to the level of the US Navy's carrier-based aircraft wing.
Taiwan's substantial defense budget increase is encouraging.
Taiwan's response has been encouraging, beginning with its announcement at the end of August that defense spending for fiscal 2026 would increase by 22.9%, which could bring the military budget's share of gross domestic product (GDP) to 3.39% for the first time since 2009.
Some U.S. officials have suggested that Taiwan should increase its military spending to 5% or even 10% of GDP. Although this increase is still lower than U.S. expectations, it is undeniable that it is significant progress, and the military equipment Taiwan plans to purchase is also worthy of recognition.
The first is to increase the number of Lockheed Martin High Mobility Multiple Launch Rocket System (HIMARS) missile launchers from 29 to 57, indicating that the Taiwanese military will be able to launch up to 114 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles with a range of more than 300 kilometers in the future.
Taiwan also plans to acquire approximately 50,000 small and large drones over the next five years, including more than 2,000 Altius-600MV autonomous anti-armor drones manufactured by Anduril, a company founded by Palmer Luckey.
Both the People's Liberation Army and Taiwan learned from the bitter experience of the Ukraine War, recognizing that drones, whether short-range or long-range, are indispensable and decisive weapons on the battlefield.
These procurement plans will supplement military procurement projects that were initiated during the first Trump administration, including 400 shore-based Harpoon anti-ship missiles, 66 new Lockheed Martin F-16V fourth-generation and a half fighter jets, as well as HIMARS launchers and ATACMS missiles.
However, as the PLA expands its investment in unmanned weapons and humanoid robots, the United States should consider selling American-developed laser and microwave weapons in the near future. Taipei should also consider building a militia with asymmetric combat capabilities, equipped with hundreds of thousands of rifles and shoulder-fired missiles, to carry out regional defense missions.
Another asymmetric countermeasure against PLA robots and humanoid robots is the extensive use of .50 caliber (12.7 mm) anti-material rifles, giving reserve forces and militia sufficient range and firepower to destroy these lightly armored targets.
Deploying tactical nuclear weapons in the Indo-Pacific to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
The United States now has options available to it that could significantly impact a CCP/PLA invasion of Taiwan in the near term, including a significant increase in the production of theater-range missiles and the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in the Indo-Pacific, a region currently devoid of any such weapons.
In 1957, then-US President Dwight Eisenhower approved the deployment of Matador cruise missiles, equipped with tactical nuclear weapons, to Taiwan to deter Mao Zedong from changing his plan to gather troops to invade Taiwan.
Perhaps only when Xi Jinping realizes that he will lose a large number of personnel and equipment in a multi-wave invasion of Taiwan involving up to 100,000 people will he change his plan to invade the democratic island nation.
(The author, Fei Xueli, is a senior researcher at the Center for International Assessment and Strategy, a US think tank. Translated by Chen Hongda for the International News Center.)
