Donald Trump has not hesitated to deploy 15,000 troops to the Caribbean and send the Navy's best aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald Ford, escorted by destroyers and fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets capable of launching hundreds of Tomahawk missiles. This unprecedented military deployment marks the return of an old strategy: The White House is shaking up the US geopolitical architecture with Latin America. His public statements on social media contain a calculated dose of political and economic pressure aimed at changing the internal course of some countries in the region. The Republican president openly supports like-minded candidates and tightens conditions toward progressive governments or those not aligned with Washington's interests. This military action has sparked speculation about a possible intervention in Venezuela.
By larazon.es
Contrary to what Joe Biden and Barack Obama did, the Republican has dusted off the old Monroe Doctrine (1823), whose formula was summarized in the phrase"America for the Americans." This framework aimed to prevent European political influence in the newly independent Latin American countries, says Gilberto Aranda, professor at the Institute of International Studies of the University of Chile. But the main objective of the doctrine resurrected in the 21st century is to prevent competitors, particularly China and Russia, from accessing the United States' sphere of influence, which is especially rich in natural resources, including oil.
The Trump administration is raising the strategic priority of the Western Hemisphere, admits Christopher da Cunha Bueno Garman, director for the Americas at Eurasia Group. In reality, the White House's new strategy seems old. In the second half of the 20th century, the United States intervened in Latin America, orchestrating coups from the shadows, such as those suffered by Allende in Chile (1973) and Jacobo Árbenz in Guatemala (1954). Fifty years later, Trump publicly states that he has ordered the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela.
We are going to see a White House very focused on security, using the U.S. military and perhaps carrying out some covert operations. And that is a policy that will continue for the next two years, says Bueno Garman, who points to three objectives on Trump's agenda: The first is to help elect and sustain conservative governments in the region. The second is to reduce the Chinese presence in Latin America. And the third is to have a security policy that combats drug trafficking groups. U.S. security also involves redirecting resources to ensure a safer neighborhood within a strategy aimed at stopping illegal immigration. This policy seeks to secure an area of influence for the United States, and implies that Latin American resources should be preferentially directed toward the United States, and U.S. technology should be preeminent in the region, says Aranda.
The case of Honduras
To that end, Trump has not hesitated to clearly intervene in the elections of several countries. The most recent case has been Honduras, with the threat to withdraw economic support from the Central American country if the conservative candidate does not win. “If Tito Asfura wins (…) we will strongly support him. If he doesn’t win, the United States will not waste its money,” Trump said over the weekend. In October, he did something similar in Argentina, where he conditioned the disbursement of $40 billion in loans on a victory for Javier Milei. While awaiting the final count in Honduras, in Argentina the gamble paid off.
In the same region, El Salvador has received significant support under the Nayib Bukele administration, mainly for migration management and security, in exchange for its cooperation with the US, which includes the imprisonment of people expelled by US police, whether they are criminals or undocumented immigrants.
Less friendly countries have been subjected to intense pressure. Mexico is watching the moves of the White House occupant, who has raised the possibility of carrying out military operations against its neighbor if President Claudia Sheinbaum does not curb fentanyl trafficking and the flow of migrants. In Colombia, President Gustavo Petro, whom Trump links to drug trafficking, has received several sanctions.
Brazil's case is different. After an initial move to prevent his ally Jair Bolsonaro from going to jail, Trump confessed that he has good chemistry with Lula da Silva, the current leftist president. Bueno Garman explains it this way: “This is an administration that seeks to support conservative governments and penalize leftist administrations, but it's not a consistent policy across the board. We're seeing this in Brazil, where Trump is backing down on punitive tariffs because he recognizes they haven't been effective and that he needs to secure critical minerals.” According to him, the same is happening in Mexico: Claudia Sheinbaum has a good relationship with the president, but it's unlikely we'll see the kind of financial aid given in Argentina in other countries.
Venezuela: the main target
The most resounding power play has been in Venezuela, where unofficially Trump is seeking regime change by overthrowing Nicolás Maduro. The White House maintains that this is solely a frontal assault on drug trafficking, which, according to the US perspective, is sponsored by Caracas. So far, US forces have killed 83 people traveling in alleged drug-laden boats heading north. Meanwhile, the Republican president held a telephone conversation with the Venezuelan leader, although he has not revealed its content, days after designating the Venezuelan president as the leader of a terrorist organization, the Cartel of the Suns, thus making him a legitimate target for a possible Pentagon military operation.
Much of the pressure exerted in the Caribbean stems from a dual strategy, says Aranda. On the one hand, it seeks to combat drug trafficking. On the other hand, the strategy's primary objective is to achieve regime change in Venezuela, he adds. During his first term (2016-2020), the magnate threatened military intervention in the Caribbean nation, something he ultimately did not carry out. In Venezuela, many believe he will not dare to send marines now either, as uncertainty continues to grow.
Greenland and Canada
But Trump's strategy is not limited to political interventions. Trump has insisted that he wants to make America great again, not only in a symbolic sense but also geographically. Since the beginning of his presidency, he has flirted with the idea of occupying Greenland, an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark rich in oil, gas, and rare earth elements needed to manufacture electric cars and advanced processors. He has also proposed the annexation of Canada as a new state, the 51st of the United States, as well as the recovery of the Panama Canal, which was handed over to the Central American country in 1999 under the Torrijos-Carter Treaties signed in 1977.
This mix of economic and commercial pressure—dollar diplomacy—combined with the old gunboat diplomacy—employed in the late 19th century during the height of the colonial dispute between European powers and the US to establish commercial empires—has generated mistrust in left-leaning countries in the Americas, which fear that Trump will target them. This is the case in Cuba, where Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez described the US military escalation in the Caribbean as madness and a violation of international law, based on the untenable lie of the fight against drug trafficking. Humanitarian organizations such as Amnesty International have warned of the US shift, arguing that economic and political interests are taking precedence over the human rights of millions affected by the new immigration regulations.
In any case, Garman introduces a key nuance: This is a White House that is moving aggressively around the region, but when it comes to transforming Latin America it has limited capabilities… and many of its policies end up pivoting when they realize they are not working.
In short, Trump has once again placed Latin America at the forefront of the United States' sphere of influence, forcing many countries in the region to reassess their alliances at an increasingly uncertain and contested time. No one truly knows how far the most powerful man in the world is willing to go, nor whether his strategy stems from a long-term plan or from tactical impulses driven by his verbal incontinence.
