Donald Trump’s new security doctrine, made public in recent days through the National Security Strategy 2025 (NSS), marks a major shift in American strategic posture. It rests on several cardinal principles: an avowed “America First” approach and a strict refocusing on American interests, the assertion of dominance in Latin America and the Western Hemisphere, selective non-interventionism underpinned by a self-proclaimed geopolitical pragmatism, and economic warfare established as a central instrument of foreign and security policy. The document identifies Europe as a continent threatened with civilizational decline and outlines a vision in which the United States relinquishes its traditional role as global guardian of the liberal order, prioritizing the Western Hemisphere. A geopolitical realignment of the highest order.
In Rabat, this Trump 2025 doctrine is being read with attention and lucidity. The Maghreb, in its current state, is characterized by structural instability: an Algeria weakened by its dependence on a single-export economy and an open political succession; a fractured, fragmented, and difficult-to-govern Libya; and a Tunisia sinking into a prolonged political and economic crisis. This landscape contrasts sharply with Morocco, which stands out for its institutional stability, economic openness, diplomatic influence, and a clearly defined Atlantic-African position. The Kingdom has set itself several strategic objectives: to make the recognition, in December 2020, of the Moroccan sovereignty over the Southern Provinces by President Trump a structuring and lasting pillar of the actions of American administrations; to accelerate and consolidate its military build-up to strengthen its regional deterrent capability; to promote the country's position as an African platform for American companies; and to contribute to the stabilization of the South Atlantic, the Sahel, and West Africa. Finally, to rise to the rank of energy hub (gas, hydrogen, electrical interconnections), supported by structuring projects (Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline, green hydrogen, Atlantic offshore).
Faced with the Trump 2025 doctrine, Rabat is thus prioritizing a set of pillars already outlined over several years. The first concerns the strategic consolidation of the national issue: anchoring American recognition in the long term, further broadening the circle of explicit support for the autonomy plan, and strengthening the perception of Morocco as a stabilizing regional power. From this perspective, the possibility of a long-term strategic partnership agreement with Washington is no longer merely diplomatic speculation. It would also involve working towards the institutionalization of the American position through, for example, a joint resolution of both Houses of Congress confirming Morocco's sovereignty over its recovered southern provinces, as well as through a tangible strengthening of the United States' economic presence in the industrial zones of Dakhla and Laayoune. Such an architecture would give the American position a structural and difficult-to-reverse character, beyond changes in power in Washington.
Aware of the current political and diplomatic cycle in Washington, the Kingdom is working to transform this situation into a historic advantage, based on a few guiding principles: securing its sovereignty, consolidating its regional power, and accelerating its economic development. — Mustapha Sehimi
On the security front, the priority is equally clear: to broaden and deepen military and defense cooperation, maintain credible regional military superiority, and improve interoperability with the US Army, the US Air Force, and AFRICOM. The roadmap signed on October 2, 2020, with a 2030 horizon, provides the framework for this upgrade, particularly through the acquisition of advanced technologies. This will reinforce Morocco's role as an essential security ally in North and West Africa.
Morocco's ambitions extend beyond the military sphere. The Trump 2025 doctrine explicitly identifies Morocco as a potential hub for American investment, with the stated goal of attracting some $50 billion in investment by 2030. The levers are numerous: the creation of a US-Morocco Industrial Zone in Dakhla (automotive, aerospace, renewable energy, etc.), targeted tax incentives for American companies, the strengthened positioning of Tangier Med as a US-Africa logistics hub, and co-investments in green hydrogen by attracting major American companies (GE, Tesla Energy, Exxon, Chevron, among others). The objective is clear: to make Morocco, ultimately, the leading African platform for American trade and investment.
On the diplomatic front, the Kingdom intends to capitalize on its regional role with Washington's support. The objectives are clear: to consolidate Morocco's status as a pivotal state and, more broadly, to work towards the emergence of a regional security architecture underpinned by the Morocco-United States partnership. The areas covered would include the stabilization of the Sahel, support for the African Atlantic Initiative, and a strengthened mediation role in the Middle East, under the leadership of King Mohammed VI, in his capacity as Chairman of the OIC's Al-Quds Committee. Rabat is fully aware that Donald Trump operates within a deliberate transactional framework – a"give and take" approach – where every concession requires a tangible return.
In this context, Morocco possesses strong arguments: a profile as a stable ally, a proven role in Mediterranean and Atlantic security, and considerable potential for economic cooperation. Beyond the irreversible recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara—a primary national priority—Rabat seeks broader access to military technology and logistical capabilities, as well as massive investments in its strategic regions. Aware of the current political and diplomatic cycle in Washington, the Kingdom is working to transform this situation into a historic advantage, based on a few guiding principles: securing its sovereignty, consolidating its regional power, and accelerating its economic development. It is against this backdrop that the true impact of the Trump 2025 doctrine on the Moroccan-American relationship will be assessed in the coming years.
