A statement released after the operation said the scheme was run by a "high-ranking criminal organization" that planned to divert around $100 million from the energy sector, while Ukraine suffers daily Russian attacks on its infrastructure.

This announcement caused a political explosion. Businessman Timur Mindič, co-owner of the media house"Kvartal 95" founded by Volodimir Zelenski, was named as the alleged organizer. Justice Minister German Galushchenko was suspended due to possible involvement, and Energy Minister Svetlana Grinchuk submitted resignation, allegedly at Zelensky's request. Both deny any wrongdoing.

Although the investigation involves one of his closest associates, Zelensky has publicly supported NABU's actions. He said that effective measures against corruption are"seriously needed" and emphasized that all those involved must be punished.

It is a major reversal from his failed attempts in July to bring Ukraine's anti-corruption institutions under the control of the president's office. But the situation also leaves room for unsavory details that could damage his standing as president during the war and his reelection prospects after the war.

Awkward relationship between Zelenski and Mindić

Zelenski's relationship with Mindić will be under special scrutiny in the coming days. In an interview with Ukrainska Pravda in 2022, oligarch Igor Kolomoisky stated that it was Mindych who introduced him to Zelensky.

Mindić played a key role in creating that alliance. Kolomoisky significantly helped Zelenskiy in the 2019 presidential campaign. year. Although Zelensky revoked his Ukrainian citizenship in 2022, and the SBU arrested him for money laundering in 2023, the indictment against Mindich reopens the issue of that relationship.

Mindic's easy approach to the presidential administration further fuels suspicions. In addition to Zelenski using his armored car, Mindič met several times with Andrije Jermak, the head of the presidential cabinet. While none of this proves that Zelensky condoned possible abuses, it raises questions about his judgment and the environment he has built for himself.

Because of these doubts, the toxicity of the energy scandal and the impending possible surrender of Pokrovsky, speculation about the political fate of Zelensky is getting louder.

Zelensky has already survived the impossible many times

Still, the president's impressive political reflexes mean he shouldn't be written off too soon. Even before the war, he was weaker in the polls than Petro Poroshenko, but his decisive response in the first days of the Russian invasion turned him into a national hero.

When Valery Zaluzhny, now ambassador in London, overtook Zelensky in terms of popularity last year, Zelensky managed to reverse the narrative and create a patriotic wave after the failed Oval Office meeting with US President Donald Trump. If he lets this investigation play out, the scandal could even give him political ammunition.

Zelensky was elected in 2019 on a platform of fighting political and military corruption, but his early investigations were seen by many as politically motivated. Few Ukrainians regretted the sanctions against Viktor Medvedchuk 2021. but the actions against Poroshenko fueled the perception that Zelensky is using anti-corruption procedures to deal with opponents.

Now he has a chance to change that narrative. Although Mindic has reportedly fled the country and is unlikely to be arrested, a trial in absentia would show that no one is above the law. Zelensky would also score political points for dealing with the notoriously opaque energy sector.

The energy sector has been a hotbed of corruption for years

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, the coal industry was a hotbed of oligarchic profits based on corrupt subsidies. When the then Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko tried to implement reforms, President Leonid Kuchma immediately fired her.

A strong fight against corruption in the energy sector would have a huge impact on the short-term financing and long-term reconstruction plan of Ukraine today. The NABU raids coincided with a £13 million British grant and a €40 million German grant to rebuild the energy grid destroyed by Russian attacks. An effective fight against corruption would reduce the risk of aid abuse and weaken the opponents of Ukraine in President Trump's circle.

Ukraine is also seeking to position itself as a future hub for renewable energy in Europe and attract major investments from the EU and the EBRD. A stable and transparent environment is necessary for these investments.

The energy scandal is a key test for Volodymyr Zelensky. His response to NABU's actions could determine whether this crisis strengthens or undermines his post-war re-election prospects.