President Donald Trump is in a more vulnerable position, from a commercial standpoint, than when he announced the 50% tariff on Brazilian products on July 9. Meat and coffee are expensive in the US and there has been no impact on Brazil's main agricultural exports.

Trump's tariffs couldn't have come at a worse time for U.S. beef, which is experiencing its worst production decline in 70 years. Every industry has its cycles. Within a year or two, production may increase again. But the shortage led to a 14% increase in the price of American beef in the 12 months ending in August.

For a stable economy like the US, that's a lot. A late-afternoon burger barbecue is sacred to the American family. Faced with pressure, Trump has talked about importing Argentine beef. This is likely to help President Javier Milei in the Argentine congressional elections this Sunday—as he did by making a $40 billion currency swap conditional on his ally's victory at the polls.

But it didn't help matters. The statement sparked a rare phenomenon in times of Trump's complete dominance of his party's primaries, especially considering the congressional elections are a year away. Republican lawmakers from beef-producing states publicly criticized the president. Chuck Grassley of Iowa, one of the longest-serving members of the Senate, said that"hurting American beef is not putting America first," referring to Trump's slogan.

In contrast, Brazilian beef exports in September recorded their highest level in the historical series, which began in 1997. American beef was already so expensive that exports continued, even with a 50% tariff. Brazilian meatpackers export to 165 countries and allocated the meat to other markets. Mexico began selling more to the US and buying more from Brazil.

Orange juice and coffee exports also didn't decline with the 50% tariff. Coffee is so important to Americans that importers split the tariff with exporters. The harvest was 25% smaller, and prices are high, which softened the impact. China switched from American soybeans to Brazilian and Argentinean ones.

This doesn't mean that an agreement isn't in Brazil's interest. The American market pays well and offers unparalleled logistics. And the impact of the tariff hike began in September in the machinery sector. There was a 28% drop, with the exception of construction machinery, which has annual contracts and saw a 5% increase.

But, when it comes to agriculture, the engine of the Brazilian economy, the one with the rope around his neck is not Lula.