With less than a year to go before parliamentary elections that could have a lasting impact on Morocco's trajectory, the question of the government's ability to realize its ambitions has returned to the forefront of the debate. It is at this pivotal political moment that Yasmina Asrarguis, a research associate at Princeton University, has published a strategic note for the Choiseul Institute dedicated to the Kingdom of Morocco by 2035. Her report revolves around a major question: will Morocco be able to translate its strategic ambition into a real capacity for implementation?
In her report, the researcher describes a country confident in its strengths, embarked on a trajectory of rapid transformation, sometimes outpacing the evolution of the structures meant to support it. She defends this optimistic assessment in an interview with Jeune Afrique magazine as an analytical snapshot of a country undergoing a major transition. It remains to be seen whether the coming years will confirm this momentum.
When questioned about the apparent disconnect between economic ambition and the stagnation of the political landscape, she emphasized that Morocco is moving forward with remarkable confidence: it possesses world-class infrastructure, an expanding industrial base, and a clearly defined geoeconomic vision. While acknowledging that partisan mediation efforts are still struggling to keep pace, she believes this situation does not signify a deadlock but rather resembles a transitional phase typical of states undergoing significant expansion. According to her, the stability of the strategic vision, driven from the highest levels of government, forms the foundation of this dynamic.
However, this vision does not erase the limitations of implementation, notes Jeune Afrique. Morocco is one of those countries where the vision precedes the administration, explains Asrarguis, pointing to administrative inertia and project delays as major obstacles. The challenge of the next decade is to strengthen the capacities of the administrative last mile, she insists, mentioning the need to professionalize decentralized services and secure budget execution.
Economically, while the country benefits from an industrial base structured around the automotive sector and foreign direct investment representing nearly 50% of GDP, these advances face significant constraints: persistent water stress, declining agriculture, a massive informal sector, and marked territorial disparities. These constraints do not negate ambition, but they do determine its price, warns the researcher, noting that nations that progress are those that transform their vulnerabilities into levers for reform.
Morocco's African projection constitutes another pillar of this strategy, continues Jeune Afrique. This is a logical direction, according to Asrarguis, who points out that Morocco's African vocation is rooted in a long history. But she also emphasizes that the kingdom is well aware of the continent's fragility. The Moroccan presence is not based on a naive interpretation. Rabat has integrated Africa's structural volatility as an inherent aspect of the African game, she analyzes.
One central challenge remains: human capital. The country is still struggling to develop the skills necessary for its industrial and geoeconomic ambitions. “No sustainable power can be built without strong human capital,” Asrarguis reminds us, citing worrying indicators such as high rates of rural illiteracy and the significant number of young people without training or employment. While acknowledging the initial efforts undertaken, particularly in vocational training, she insists: “The pivotal power can only become a reality if this human capital becomes the country’s primary asset.”
Asked to consider the obstacles that could hinder the 2035 horizon, she summarizes the major risk in one formula: The growing gap between the country's ambitions and its actual capacity to implement them. According to her, avoiding this scenario requires strengthening the core operational capacity—that is, the ability to transform plans into tangible results. Power lies not only in vision, but also in the consistent daily execution of it, she concludes.
To inform her analysis, the researcher employs a hybrid methodology combining the study of public policies, institutional data from sources including the High Commission for Planning, the World Bank, and the OECD, as well as fieldwork conducted in several regions. This approach allows her to contextualize macroeconomic trends, whether they be persistent water stress, the agricultural slowdown linked to drought, the rise of the automotive industry, or the increase in foreign investment.
Still relatively unknown to the general public, Yasmina Asrarguis has built her expertise at the crossroads of diplomacy and research. After working with former UNESCO Director-General Audrey Azoulay, within Emmanuel Macron's diplomatic unit and then at the Office of the UN Secretary-General in New York, she joined Princeton where she conducted doctoral research on the dynamics of peace in the Middle East and on the role of Morocco in the regional realignments stemming from the Abraham Accords.
