interview

According to Middle East expert Busse, the US president's recent pressure on Israel's prime minister made the Gaza agreement possible in the first place. However, the most difficult questions still need to be resolved – and this is where Trump's role remains crucial.

tagesschau.de: US President Donald Trump was acclaimed in the Israeli parliament, and he was thanked with some frenetic applause. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that everything changed overnight with Trump's inauguration. How did you perceive Trump's appearance?

Jan Busse : Trump's appearance was, of course, typical. He first praised himself, but then also his entourage and their negotiating skills—and he spoke extensively about Netanyahu as a strong leader.

I found it remarkable that he called on Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog to pardon Netanyahu, even though he hasn't even been convicted of corruption yet. The opposition certainly didn't applaud that, because it's a very controversial issue in Israel.

It was also remarkable that Trump repeatedly emphasized the topic of peace and emphasized that now was not the time for war. Trump also addressed Netanyahu personally. Israel has changed a great deal in the region over the past two years through military strength. While this has been to its advantage, it has not yet led to lasting peace, stability, or security.

"Pressure was a central tool"

tagesschau.de: Let's look at the method Trump has used in recent months to bring about peace between Israel and Hamas. Pressure and threats – does that seem to have worked?

Busse: Pressure was a key tool used by Trump to make this deal possible. However, he actually only built up this pressure in the last month, having previously refrained from using precisely this tool. On the contrary, he allowed Netanyahu to wage this war in the Gaza Strip unhindered. Trump also tolerated Israel's withholding of humanitarian aid there.

And this wasn't the first time Trump's pressure had been successful. He had already used this method in January, shortly before he was inaugurated. That time, it resulted in a ceasefire and an exchange of hostages and prisoners.

This pressure is definitely central—and at the same time, something that the previous administration under US President Joe Biden must be criticized for. He refrained from exerting pressure throughout this war—especially on Netanyahu.

The aftermath of the attack on the Hamas leadership

tagesschau.de : How do you explain the massive increase in pressure at such short notice? Did the attack in Qatar play a significant role?

Busse : This Israeli attack on the Hamas leadership in Qatar did indeed bring about a change. This led to Trump's assessment,"The cup is full, enough is enough." From that point on, a different dynamic emerged. Trump certainly also observed the wave of recognition by many states that recognized Palestine as a state.

And on Hamas's side, military pressure was a major factor. At the same time, the Arab states and Turkey exerted considerable influence to ensure that Hamas showed a willingness to compromise.

"Netanyahu lacks the courage to make a long-term peace"

tagesschau.de : Until recently, it was unclear whether Netanyahu would fly to Egypt after all. Initially, Trump invited him, and Egypt confirmed his attendance. Then his office backpedaled. What does this back and forth suggest?

Busse : Netanyahu is someone who operates very strategically. He was caught off guard by Trump's impulsiveness and may have briefly been tempted to agree to the whole thing. We don't know for sure.

I think he then had to admit to himself that he had to be considerate of his right-wing extremist coalition partners. He also probably wanted to avoid any pictures of him next to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, or even having to shake hands with him.

This demonstrates that Netanyahu lacks the political courage to truly turn this situation into a lasting peace. While this is only one incident, it shows that when it comes down to it, he's more likely to back down.

What Witkoff and Kushner must now clarify

tagesschau.de: Can a"peace summit" work if both warring parties are not present at the table, or only indirectly through the mediators?

Busse: The summit was probably more of a ceremonial act, where Trump was celebrated as a peacemaker. The work between the warring parties still needs to follow.

It is crucial and fundamental that Trump stays on the ball and that his advisors, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, ensure that the key questions are clarified: When will Israel withdraw its armed forces from the Gaza Strip? How will Hamas be disarmed? What should a transitional administration made up of non-partisan Palestinian experts look like? What powers should this peace body, this"Board of Peace," be empowered? How exactly will reconstruction proceed? And, of course, which states should provide troops for this international peace mission?

All of these questions still need to be clarified. The comparatively simpler ones, even though they are extremely important, such as the exchange of prisoners and hostages, have been resolved. The more difficult questions have yet to be resolved.

"I see a risk that the war could continue"

tagesschau.de: Is it conceivable that Israel will resume fighting? For example, if the weapons are not handed over as Hamas originally promised.

Busse : I see a risk that this war could be continued by Israel. And I believe that parts of Trump's plan were formulated in such a way that one could find a pretext for it, if one wanted to.

Whether Netanyahu will allow himself to be pressured into doing so by his far-right coalition partners, or whether Trump's insistence not to do it again is stronger, remains to be seen. On Air Force One—the presidential plane—Trump said several times today:"This war is over." A signal, also to Netanyahu.

tagesschau.de: How can the power vacuum that has now emerged in the Gaza Strip be filled? There are reports of targeted killings and acts of revenge by Hamas in the streets.

Busse: Hamas is attempting to regain control of the Gaza Strip and is sending armed forces into the streets to assert its claim to power. Armed groups supported by Israel and opposed to Hamas will not be able to challenge Hamas in the long run. Israel may also have an interest in the situation spiraling into chaos. Currently, it looks more likely that Hamas is indeed capable of seizing control through armed force.

Many questions about the stabilization force

tagesschau.de : Trump's 20-point plan envisions handing power back to Palestinian hands. However, the ceasefire must first be monitored. This is to be done with an international stabilization force. What should this look like?

Busse : That's still an open question. Arab Gulf states will only participate if there is a prospect for reconstruction and Palestinian independence. Otherwise, they would have to fear being seen as accomplices of the Israeli or American side.

Several countries have been discussed repeatedly, including Indonesia. The Indonesian head of state is expected in Israel for the first time this week. There may be a connection here. The question is whether Egyptian troops could also be present. All of these are issues that still need to be negotiated.

About the author

Jan Busse is a research associate at the Chair of International Politics and Conflict Studies at the Bundeswehr University Munich. His research interests include the political and social dynamics of the Middle East. Together with Bernhard Stahl, he is the editor of the Journal of International Relations until 2027. His most recent publication is the updated new edition of the book"The Middle East Conflict: History, Positions, Perspectives" (with Muriel Asseburg).

"There is no way around a negotiated conflict resolution"

tagesschau.de: Even if it may be a distant prospect, what role does the two-state solution currently play? If one follows the 20-point plan, it is an option that is at least not excluded within it.

Busse: It's actually only hinted at in Trump's 20-point plan. That alone is progress. Just like the fact that we're no longer talking about the forced displacement of the civilian population and that an occupation or annexation of the Gaza Strip is ruled out.

But I think that if Israelis and Palestinians really want to live in lasting security and peace, then there is no way around a negotiated conflict settlement towards a two-state solution.

And above all, I believe this is the only path that can truly lead to actors like Hamas ultimately losing ground. If the negotiations don't progress, it will strengthen the radical forces.