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Russia expresses skepticism about the plan, considering it unacceptable and a potential asset confiscation.

Western authorities have frozen between 280 and 330 billion dollars of Russian assets, mostly located in the European Union.

After the new American plan to end the war in Ukraine, in which one of the points stipulates that Russia will make available its frozen assets for the reconstruction of Ukraine, the Russian independent media Meduza in its analysis lists the reasons why it is unlikely that the Russian leader Vladimir Putin will agree to it, but also why he might.

Last week, Akios released the draft text of the Trump administration's latest plan to end the Russian-Ukrainian war, which was then discussed by senior Ukrainian and American negotiators in Geneva last weekend.

Trump's plan

One of the most detailed parts of that document is item 14, which describes how the White House intends to use Russian frozen assets. Point 14 of the draft agreement states the following:

" The frozen funds will be used as follows : One hundred billion dollars of frozen Russian assets will be invested in reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine led by the US; S AD will receive 50 percent of the profits from this challenging undertaking. Europe will add $100 billion to increase the amount of investment for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Funds frozen in Europe will be unfrozen. The rest of the frozen Russian funds will be invested in a special American-Russian an investment instrument that will implement joint projects in specific areas. This fund will be aimed at strengthening relations and increasing common interests in order to create a strong incentive to avoid a return to conflict."

It's hard not to notice that a large part of this part of the plan focuses on the potential gains the agreement could bring to the United States. This is in line with Trump's approach to the war in Ukraine since his return to the White House in January - he has repeatedly stressed that Washington must stop spending money to support Kiev and start profiting from investments already made through arms shipments and other aid sent to Kiev.

The same logic was behind the now largely forgotten "rare earth elements" agreement with Ukraine and the restructuring of the arms supply system, in which NATO would pay for US arms transfers to Ukraine. The extent of these purchases is unclear, but Trump insists that the United States begin to make a profit from these shipments. And judging by the White House's proposal, frozen Russian assets should become another source of compensation - and ultimately profit - for Washington.

However, in order to understand the risks involved in this concept, one should first have an insight into what these frozen funds are.

What are frozen Russian assets

To protect against inflation and exchange rate risks, the Russian central bank, like other national regulators, invests its money in reliable assets. Most often, these are foreign securities, such as government bonds with the highest rating.

According to various estimates, Western authorities have frozen between 280 and 330 billion dollars of Russian assets. At least two-thirds of this amount - more than 200 billion dollars - is in the European Union. The custodian of most of these frozen reserves is the Belgian depository Euroclear, which looks after nearly $160 billion of Russian state assets.

From the beginning of 2022. Russia held no more than 6 percent of its reserves in the United States. It is estimated that around 5 billion dollars are frozen there. This is where the key questions arise when it comes to Trump's proposal - without European support, how would Washington manage hundreds of billions of Russian assets and is a realistic scenario in which the Kremlin would surrender its reserves to stop the war?

Securing the Kremlin's approval for the transfer of around 200 billion dollars for the reconstruction of Ukraine would be an extremely difficult challenge for Washington. On the Russian side, responsibility for the draft peace plan rests with Kirill Dmitriyev, Putin's envoy for economic cooperation, who does not have the diplomatic authority to represent and represent the Kremlin's official position.

Neither the foreign ministry nor the government has made any statement indicating that Russia might hand over its reserves.

- Before Trump's offer was announced, I did not hear that the Russian authorities were ready to take such a step and thus indirectly recognize the need to compensate Ukraine," said anti-corruption expert Ilya Shmanov for Medusa.

American control and Russia's willingness to give up reserves

By contrast, just over a week ago, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov described the asset confiscation scenario as"bandit behavior" and threatened the West with a reciprocal response.

However, in February, Reuters sources familiar with the negotiations at the time said that behind closed doors Russian officials were not ruling out unfreezing part of their reserves for Ukraine, provided that at least a third of the money was spent on rebuilding areas occupied by Russian forces after the full-scale invasion began on February 24, 2022. But there has been no sign of progress on the assets since then, and Russia's progress on the front line does not bring Ukraine closer to a win-win scenario that would allow Kiev to seek reparations from Moscow.

Ukraine desperately needs a new c, a new player has emerged as a potential savior:"If anyone can help, it's them" At the same time, Europe has not taken any decisive action to seize Russian assets in favor of Ukraine. EU governments are stuck over the legal and financial risks of any expropriation. Last year, European officials agreed to transfer interest income from Russia's frozen reserves, which brought Kiev several billion dollars last year and will bring in more than $10 billion this year.

But this support is not enough for Ukraine's wartime needs, forcing the EU to propose its so-called reparations loan. According to the plan, Ukraine would receive an interest-free loan from Brussels secured by Russian assets and would repay it only if Moscow paid reparations after the war. Although this would not formally take away Russian funds, Belgium opposes the concept.

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As the home country of Euroclear, Belgium would face major financial and legal liabilities under any quasi-mechanism of expropriation. Supporters of the concept - including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz - have so far failed to find a compromise with the Belgian authorities.

Russian reasons for consent

Moscow's voluntary agreement to focus its reserves on rebuilding Ukraine - apparently envisioned by Trump's plan - would likely serve as a lifeline for Europe, but it would also be an unprecedented move. The Russian economy is truly exhausted by the war, the casualties have exceeded 200,000 soldiers, and most Russians declare that they are in favor of ending the"special military operation".

Despite this, history does not remember much and does not remember many wars in which the winning side suddenly asked for peace and agreed to finance the recovery of its opponent. This move is only credible if Russia's war costs are higher than the Kremlin claims and high enough to make continued fighting unsustainable.

But there is also a more pragmatic explanation why the Russian authorities could agree to Trump's arrangement . In 2023, the G7 countries decided that Russian reserves would remain frozen under any circumstances until Ukraine received compensation for the damage caused. Even a Russian triumph on the battlefield would not change the status of the frozen assets.

With that in mind, Washington's plan could be the best compromise Moscow can reach, says Alexander Koliandre, a researcher at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)."It's better than what they have now," he told Medusa, explaining that the Kremlin has no way to recover all of its assets, and Trump's proposal would allow it to return at least some of the money.