If the Russian military cannot secure victory, and if Trump cannot force Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to submit while European financial support continues, the Kremlin has no credible path to victory. Although the Russian leadership seems to be completely oblivious to this reality, the conclusion is inescapable.

Of course, what happens next is an open question. Putin could try to escalate the situation, even though he has no favorable opportunity to do so. Or he could agree to a ceasefire and try to present it as a victory. However, any scenario of the end of the war – or the end of its active phase – in which Ukraine retains sovereignty and independence will mean a loss for Putin.