“This could be a very big escalation,” Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at commodities data analytics firm Kpler, told CNBC. “Trump’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil [will] have a significant impact on Russian seaborne crude exports and could prompt major buyers to reduce purchases in the near term, or even stop them altogether.”

The sanctions in India are expected to affect several oil refineries directly linked to Russian supplies. According to Kpler, the most vulnerable are state-owned refiners in India, including Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, Hindustan Petroleum, and private giants such as Reliance Industries, HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd., and Oil and Natural Gas Corp.

Indian companies are taking action

India became the largest buyer of cheaper Russian offshore oil in 2022 after Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It imported about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day in the first nine months of this year.