The two presidents, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, are both trying to win Donald Trump's favor. One of them has an advantage, experts say.
– It's a very simple negotiation. I want it resolved within 24 hours. Peace between them.
That's what Donald Trump said about the Ukraine war in March 2023, almost two years before he returned as president of the United States.
Now it has not only been a day, but many months since Trump was back in the White House with power.
At the same time, the war between Ukraine and Russia continues to rage with a large number of victims and destruction.
Despite this, Trump has frequent contact with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Zelensky wants more weapons, especially long-range missiles, while Putin is concerned with having Trump on the right side, several experts say.
The two heads of state, who are at war with each other, have not met since 2019, three years before the war broke out. Zelensky and Trump met on Friday, but soon it will also be time for Trump to meet Putin in Hungary.
Who really has the American president on their side now?
Thinks the Russian president will get away with it the easiest
Marianne Riddervold believes that Putin's relationship with Trump is currently to his advantage. She is a researcher at Nupi and UiO and her areas of expertise include transatlantic relations and security policy.
– It's much the same as before. Europe and Ukraine want Trump's support. But when Trump seems to be supporting Ukraine more, Putin is quick to call the White House. Trump still puts little pressure on Putin, says Riddervold.
She elaborates:
– Putin obviously gets away with it the easiest, and we've seen that all along. Trump is forcing the Ukrainians to the negotiating table, and they have thus had to show a willingness to sacrifice something. But towards Russia and Putin, Trump is more lenient in his tone, and he entices with benefits rather than pressuring Putin.
– Why does Trump operate and mediate in this way?
– Trump's starting point is completely different from Biden's. He wants to appear as a neutral broker. He has an interest in Europe and the world not being at war, and that there is a balance between the great powers. And he wants closer economic cooperation with Russia.
For there to be a ceasefire, it is Russia that must make changes and give in to its demands, says Riddervold.
– Otherwise it is not possible.
Trump to meet Putin in Hungary soon
On Thursday, it was announced that Trump and Putin will meet in Hungary to negotiate peace, but also reportedly trade agreements. The meeting is expected to take place soon.
– Can Trump put more pressure on Putin?
– He can do that by making it more costly for Russia to fight this war. By strengthening Ukraine militarily via Europe or punishing Russia economically. That's what the Europeans are trying to do, and they're trying to get the United States on board.
The fear is that Trump will not only refrain from supporting Ukraine, but will also become more closely aligned with Russia, says Riddervold.
– Putin and Trump will discuss possible trade agreements when they meet. This is not good news for the Ukrainians or the rest of Europe, says Riddervold.
– Benefit Putin
– There is a lot of bad blood between the presidents. It is a very difficult situation.
Trump said this about Putin and Zelensky on Friday before his scheduled meeting with the latter. Now, more tension is attached to the relations between the powerful presidents.
– Putin came out on top in the Zelensky-Trump meeting. He once again managed to manipulate Trump into believing he wanted peace, when it is clear that the Russian dictator does not want peace.
This is what US expert Eirik Løkke tells Aftenposten.
The only way Trump can help end the war is to increase the cost of the war for Putin, Løkke believes.
– That means increased weapons support, including Tomahawks and long-range missiles. Trump is not yet willing to do that, and thus it benefits Putin, says Løkke.
