Ukraine may face rolling power outages “throughout the entire winter,” as Russian attacks continue to degrade the country’s electricity system and force increasingly severe consumption limits, Ukrenergo head Vitaliy Zaichenko said in an extensive interview with RBC-Ukraine published this week.

“The war continues… we must prepare for the worst-case scenario”

Zaichenko said Ukraine is losing generation capacity “almost every 10 days,” while Russia shows no sign of reducing strikes on energy facilities. At the same time, Ukraine’s overall electricity consumption has fallen by around 30% since the start of the full-scale invasion – but generation losses are “much higher,” creating a widening gap that leaves the system vulnerable. The country must therefore brace for further volatility.

“If Russia had not resumed massive attacks… we could even have exported electricity this winter,” he said. But with strikes intensifying again since autumn, “the war continues, and we have to prepare for different scenarios.”

Ukraine’s energy system entered the heating season in better technical shape than a year ago, he noted, thanks to months of repairs, equipment replacement, and large stockpiles of spare parts built with the help of international partners. Yet the decisive factor remains Moscow’s targeting of critical infrastructure – the timing and scale of which “cannot be predicted.”

Russia may try to split the grid in half

Ukrenergo does not rule out that Russia will try to divide Ukraine’s power system geographically by knocking out east-west transmission links.

Zaichenko said that such a split already happened in 2023 after a major Russian assault. “Now the occupiers are again trying to divide our system, to shut it down – this is the enemy’s main goal,” he said, adding that repair teams are working “around the clock” to prevent such an outcome.

Rolling out multi-layer defense: From gabions to concrete bunkers

To shield critical sites, Ukraine is building a comprehensive “2+” protection system that combines:

The shift underground was necessary, Zaichenko explained, because Russian forces have adapted their tactics: early-war horizontal drone attacks have been replaced with vertical strikes targeting weak points from above.

About half of Ukrenergo’s transformer fleet is now protected by second-level concrete structures. The rest will be reinforced in the first half of 2026.

“These structures have already proven effective,” he said, noting that several units survived multiple direct drone hits.

Still, no defense can offer “100% protection.”

Kyiv’s situation “no different” from other regions

The capital has faced intense outages, but Zaichenko stressed that “Kyiv is in the same situation as other regions,” apart from frontline and border areas where the damage is more severe. Some western regions have fared better simply because attacks hit transmission assets elsewhere, forcing energy flows to reroute through limited-capacity corridors.

Ukraine’s grid was never designed to move vast amounts of power from west to east across hundreds of kilometers, he said. As a result, bottlenecks force some regions to impose cuts even while others have surplus capacity.

Imports increased – But not always usable

Ukraine’s maximum electricity import capacity from the EU currently stands at 2.1 GW, with plans to raise it to 2.3 GW in December. But grid damage frequently prevents full use of these volumes.

“When the system is heavily deficit and internal networks can transmit the energy, imports are fully used,” Zaichenko said. Otherwise, activating all 2.1 GW would require shutting down a nuclear reactor – “not quite the right decision.”

Despite political noise from Hungary or Slovakia, he emphasized that no country has cut off imports, and technical cooperation under ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity) rules remains stable.

Distributed generation helps, but not enough

Ukraine has added 1.8 GW of distributed generation – including renewables – since the start of the year. Without renewables, the figure is about 1.2 GW. Zaichenko welcomed the trend but said it cannot yet offset losses from destroyed power plants.

Given the scale of damage, Ukraine would need “another 2 GW” of distributed capacity “in the moment” to stabilize the system.

Nuclear expansion plans face economic limits

Ukraine has discussed plans for up to nine new nuclear reactors, but Zaichenko cautioned that such an expansion is unrealistic.

“Nine blocks is probably too much,” he said, explaining that utilization rates would fall to around 50%, making the projects economically non-viable. Ukrenergo believes Ukraine instead needs a balanced mix of:

How long will the outages last?

Zaichenko said the duration of rolling blackouts depends entirely on Russian attack intensity and the speed of repairs.

“Changes can be negative or positive,” he said. “Everyone is working on restoring facilities. It is only a matter of time.”

Asked whether outages could last the whole winter, he replied: “Potentially – this is possible. The war is not over.”

He added a practical reminder familiar to many Ukrainians: “Europeans have done this for decades – they save energy. We must do the same.”