For years, the alliance that gave birth to NATO and has kept Europeans and North Americans together for eight decades has been faltering. In Washington, Democrats and Republicans alike maintain that the country's strategic interests lie in Asia and that it is essential to pivot eastward, dedicating resources and attention to China at the expense of the European theater. Since Donald Trump's first term, the old continent has been openly questioning whether the US remains a reliable ally and debating how to take control of its own defense. And now, the White House responds for the first time with the same doubts, putting many questions about the future of the EU, its members, and the transatlantic relationship into black and white in its 2025 National Security Strategy:"If current trends continue, the continent will be unrecognizable in 20 years or less. Therefore, it is far from certain whether certain European countries will have economies and militaries strong enough to remain reliable allies," says the document published this Friday.
The same is added, in an even more striking tone, regarding the Atlantic Alliance."It is quite possible that, at most within a few decades, some NATO members will have a non-European majority. Therefore, it is uncertain whether they will perceive their place in the world, or their alliance with the United States, in the same way as those who signed the NATO Charter," the document states. This text, one of the most anticipated in decades by international relations experts, defines the country's line."President Trump's foreign policy is pragmatic without being pragmatism, realistic without being realism; it is principled without being idealistic, energetic without being hawkish, and moderate without being dove-like. It is not based on a traditional political ideology, but is motivated primarily by"What works for the United States, or, in two words, 'America First'," he summarizes.
The 33-page document summarizes the United States' foreign policy, Trump's obsessions, his national interests, and especially his critical, almost apocalyptic, and contemptuous view of Europe. A territory, in his view, in absolute decline, on the verge of"disappearing as a civilization" due to immigration,"the censorship of free speech and the suppression of political opposition," and "its failed approach to regulatory strangulation." A Union without a future that the US, like a concerned older brother, must help change."We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational confidence, and to abandon its failed approach," insists Donald Trump's team.
In a section titled Promoting European Greatness, the Trump Administration argues that for too long"U.S. officials have become accustomed to thinking of European problems in terms of insufficient military spending and economic stagnation." And while "there is some truth to this," it continues,"Europe's real problems run much deeper," blaming "national and transnational regulations that undermine creativity and industriousness."
For the White House, the"economic decline is overshadowed by the very real and starker prospect of the disappearance of civilization. The most important problems facing Europe include the activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political freedom and sovereignty, migration policies that are transforming the continent and creating conflicts, censorship of free speech and the suppression of political opposition, plummeting birth rates, and the loss of national identities and self-confidence."
The US administration emphasizes that "however, Europe remains vital to the United States, both strategically and culturally (...) Not only can we not afford to disregard Europe, but doing so would be counterproductive to the objectives of this strategy." Therefore, and Trump makes no secret of this, the US is determined to support its political allies, the nationalist, identitarian, and similar parties in Europe, to come to power and contribute to the transformation, drawing a clear link between their nationalist, conservative, anti-immigrant, Christian, and identitarian vision and the concept of civilization.
"American diplomacy must continue to champion genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and the unapologetic celebration of the character and history of European nations. The United States encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this resurgence of spirit, and the growing influence of European patriotic parties is certainly cause for great optimism. Our aim should be to help Europe correct its current course. We will need a strong Europe that helps us compete successfully and that works with us to prevent any adversary from dominating Europe."
There's nothing new here. It's the thesis Trump repeats time and again, and which Vice President J.D. Vance presented last spring in London and Munich, slapping his partners in the face at one of their most important security forums. The same administration that releases criminals, sues television networks and newspapers for tens of billions, threatens to revoke broadcast licenses, and tries to stifle universities, law firms, and NGOs, lectures its partners on freedom of expression. The same administration that seeks ways to do business with Russia criticizes Europeans for not following its lead in the war in Ukraine.
"The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who have unrealistic expectations for war, perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic democratic principles to suppress opposition," it says in what is probably the harshest attack in the entire document, explicitly pointing to Germany."A large European majority desires peace, but that desire is not translating into policy, largely due to the subversion of democratic processes by those governments. This is strategically important to the United States precisely because European states cannot reform themselves if they are caught up in political crises," the National Security Strategy states.
The document also addresses the rest of the world with three main ideas. For the Western Hemisphere, it presents the Monroe Doctrine with the Trump Corollary, without any reservations."After years of neglect, the United States will reaffirm and implement the Monroe Doctrine to restore American preeminence in the Western Hemisphere and protect our national territory and our access to key geographies throughout the region. We will deny non-hemispheric competitors the ability to position forces or other threatening capabilities, or to own or control strategically vital assets in our hemisphere."
For Asia, confronting China on all fronts. “President Trump single-handedly reversed more than three decades of erroneous US assumptions about China—the idea that by opening our markets, encouraging American companies to invest in China, and outsourcing our production, we would make it easier for Beijing to enter the so-called ‘rules-based international order.’ This did not happen. China grew rich and powerful, and used its wealth and power to gain considerable advantages.” For all these reasons, the document states, “a favorable conventional military balance remains an essential component of strategic competition. There is, rightly, great attention focused on Taiwan, in part because of its dominance in semiconductor production, but primarily because Taiwan provides direct access to the Second Island Chain and divides Northeast and Southeast Asia into two distinct theaters of operations. Given that one-third of global shipping passes annually through the South China Sea, this has significant implications for the U.S. economy. Therefore, deterring conflict over Taiwan, ideally while preserving military superiority, is a priority. We will also maintain our long-standing declaratory policy on Taiwan, meaning that the United States does not support any unilateral changes to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” it adds.
The third theater is Africa. The document devotes a mere three paragraphs to it, and this is deliberate. Little interest and little to gain, in its view."For too long, U.S. policy in Africa has focused on promoting, and subsequently disseminating, leftist ideology. The United States should instead seek partnerships with selected countries to mitigate conflict, foster mutually beneficial trade relations, and move from a paradigm of foreign aid to one of investment and growth capable of harnessing Africa's abundant natural resources and latent economic potential," the Strategy concludes."We must remain vigilant against the resurgence of Islamist terrorist activity in parts of Africa, while at the same time avoiding any long-term U.S. presence or commitment."
